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| Out earlier in the campaign with former councillor Val Dixon and local MP Ben Bradshaw |
We are now into what is called the "short campaign" - the last month run-up to the elections on May 3rd. This is the period when parties step up their activity, and the battle "proper" begins after months of lower-level campaigning and something of a "cold war" between parties.
There's a lot of blather and banter to politics, and most of us involved quite enjoy it if we are honest. Anyone monitoring local political Twitter streams will know there is a fair degree of (mostly) good-natured sparring between councillors and candidates about a range of issues - local and national - and regular readers of my blog will know that I have fired the odd broadside at the local Tories. But now it's crunch time, and as we move into the final stages of the election campaign I am increasingly being asked by friends and colleagues, "Well, will you win?"
I am too experienced in local politics to try to answer that question with any certainty. Pinhoe is a "two-way marginal ward", alternating in its most recent electoral history between Labour and Conservative. There are rarely more than 100 votes in it, and it is often decided by far fewer votes than that, most notably in 2010 when my Labour colleague, Moira MacDonald won by 4 votes!
What is clear is that Pinhoe will see a straight fight between Labour and the Conservatives. The highest any other party has ever managed in recent history was in 2004, but even then the Lib Dem candidate polled less than 400 votes. The Lib Dems, UKIP and the Greens cannot win in the ward.
Labour needs just 2 more seats in the city to take overall control of the council. Why is this important? I spent 8 years as a councillor in Weymouth & Portland, a borough where there has been no overall control since 1974. As a result, the political and strategic decision-making has often been protracted, and characterised by frequent compromises, back-tracking and slow responses to important issues. A single party - of whatever colour - clearly in charge gives an authority a clear vision and direction. In Exeter, Labour is running the city well as a minority administration, but overall control would enable us to effectively give our local manifesto to city officers as their corporate plan for the next municipal cycle - a clear vision, and a clear steer of direction for our council. Our manifesto begins:
By contrast, Exeter Conservatives seem to miss the bigger strategic issues, and focus their manifesto on, well, rubbish. Bins seem to be their top priority. No one is belittling waste and recycling as an important issue, but the specific local arrangements for bin collections are hardly a pressing strategic concern. In her manifesto introduction, Tory leader Cllr Yolanda Henson strikes an upbeat note about Exeter's vibrant economy and its cultural life. Well she might, she knows that our city - under sound Labour leadership - is not only weathering the storms of national economic gloom - it is a city that is prospering. Contrast that with the picture in our Tory-controlled neighbouring cities of Plymouth and Torbay where businesses are struggling and the local economies are declining, and the choice for Exeter between Labour and Tory becomes even more stark.
Exeter Tories supported their national party in its breaking of David Cameron's electoral pledge that there would be "no top-down re-organisation of the NHS", and supported Andrew Lansley's deeply unpopular NHS Bill. Their manifesto is also silent on the fact that Devon & Cornwall police are facing the fifth highest cut to its frontline officers in the country. That is a disgrace.
Exeter has a chronic shortage of homes that are affordable to local people, yet all the Tories have to say on the matter is that they would change the processes for prioritising houses. There is no vision, no strategy, no plan to actually develop more homes. Labour meanwhile is setting out our plans to establish an innovative model of co-operative housing for the city.
We are confident we will retain our existing seats, and win the two seats we need to take overall control the council and to give the city a clear vision and direction for the future. St James and Alphington wards are showing very encouraging signs of widespread Labour support, and wards like Pinhoe could also play a key role in the city.
Will I win? I am hearing a lot of support of the doorsteps, people are angry about the economy, about cuts, about unemployment, about the budget, tax inequality and particularly about the damage to the NHS under the coalition. The data, Labour organisers tell me, is that we now have enough support to win in Pinhoe - but we will only win IF those who have pledged support for us go out and covert that promise to a vote on May 3rd.
Whatever happens, it will be close. Moira won by 4 votes... For all we know, that could have been down to just one family in the ward, "umming and ahhing" about whether to bother, who fortunately decided to go. Politicians often say that "every vote counts", but that could not be more true in Pinhoe. Please don't leave it to everyone else, please don't think that your vote won't make a difference. It could be the difference between city leadership that wants a bold, bright future for our communities; or one that just wants to talk "rubbish"!
I am too experienced in local politics to try to answer that question with any certainty. Pinhoe is a "two-way marginal ward", alternating in its most recent electoral history between Labour and Conservative. There are rarely more than 100 votes in it, and it is often decided by far fewer votes than that, most notably in 2010 when my Labour colleague, Moira MacDonald won by 4 votes!
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| Pinhoe's recent electoral results |
What is clear is that Pinhoe will see a straight fight between Labour and the Conservatives. The highest any other party has ever managed in recent history was in 2004, but even then the Lib Dem candidate polled less than 400 votes. The Lib Dems, UKIP and the Greens cannot win in the ward.
Labour needs just 2 more seats in the city to take overall control of the council. Why is this important? I spent 8 years as a councillor in Weymouth & Portland, a borough where there has been no overall control since 1974. As a result, the political and strategic decision-making has often been protracted, and characterised by frequent compromises, back-tracking and slow responses to important issues. A single party - of whatever colour - clearly in charge gives an authority a clear vision and direction. In Exeter, Labour is running the city well as a minority administration, but overall control would enable us to effectively give our local manifesto to city officers as their corporate plan for the next municipal cycle - a clear vision, and a clear steer of direction for our council. Our manifesto begins:
"Under Labour, Exeter’s council tax rates have been consistently one of the lowest in the country. Just 8p out of every £1 that residents pay in council tax goes to Exeter City Council. This is a testament to the well run nature of a Council that has been under Labour control for the majority of the last 30 years.
We took the decision this year to freeze Council tax at last year’s rate. Our costed budget sets out how, over the coming year, we will be making £1 million savings while protecting the services which the citizens of Exeter need most.
We can no longer just manage our budgets better; we have to manage our business differently. We aim to streamline the council’s systems, a process which has already seen a £500,000 per year saving through reductions in senior management.
It goes on to set out our bold ambitions in the areas of housing, economic growth, quality of life & leisure, environmental sustainability, and thriving communities in our city.We are committed to getting the best value for taxpayers’ money while improving the delivery of our services and investing sustainably and strategically to secure the future of our city." - Introduction to the 2012 Exeter Labour manifesto
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| Tory-controlled Plymouth is seeing economic decline, including airport closure |
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| Major investors like John Lewis are backing Labour-led Exeter |
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| Cameron's 2010 pledge - now betrayed. |
Exeter has a chronic shortage of homes that are affordable to local people, yet all the Tories have to say on the matter is that they would change the processes for prioritising houses. There is no vision, no strategy, no plan to actually develop more homes. Labour meanwhile is setting out our plans to establish an innovative model of co-operative housing for the city.
We are confident we will retain our existing seats, and win the two seats we need to take overall control the council and to give the city a clear vision and direction for the future. St James and Alphington wards are showing very encouraging signs of widespread Labour support, and wards like Pinhoe could also play a key role in the city.
Will I win? I am hearing a lot of support of the doorsteps, people are angry about the economy, about cuts, about unemployment, about the budget, tax inequality and particularly about the damage to the NHS under the coalition. The data, Labour organisers tell me, is that we now have enough support to win in Pinhoe - but we will only win IF those who have pledged support for us go out and covert that promise to a vote on May 3rd.
Whatever happens, it will be close. Moira won by 4 votes... For all we know, that could have been down to just one family in the ward, "umming and ahhing" about whether to bother, who fortunately decided to go. Politicians often say that "every vote counts", but that could not be more true in Pinhoe. Please don't leave it to everyone else, please don't think that your vote won't make a difference. It could be the difference between city leadership that wants a bold, bright future for our communities; or one that just wants to talk "rubbish"!
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| As true now as it was then! Vintage Labour poster |
Vote Labour & Co-operative on May 3rd.
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