Entering the Final Strait... How the Labour Campaign Works

It will not be too long now before we know the results of Exeter's City Council elections. In 4 days' time the city will be waking up to find out who has won seats in which wards and - perhaps more importantly - whether Exeter Labour Party now has the necessary majority and mandate to deliver its bold manifesto to keep the city "prosperous and pleasant". So we enter the last few frenetic days of campaigning as the five parties (and one independent candidate) contesting wards across Exeter try to pick up those last precious votes, and to convert as yet undecided voters to a positive vote for them. 


As for the campaign in Pinhoe, we have pretty much contacted everyone on our lists now. Naturally, there have been one or two households in each street where no one has been in when we have called, but every area has been canvassed at least twice, so most people have spoken to me or my team. Now, you may have heard some say, "I haven't seen anyone", and that may well be true. You see, "our lists" are not the same as the electoral roll. There is something of a science behind a Labour election operation. You may not be familiar with it, and may not understand why some things (for instance being asked by someone sporting a red rosette at the polling station for your voter number as you leave) play a part in our operation. This post seeks to explain how we work, and why your answers to us can help us win.


How do you know who to call on? Our Voter ID system shows us who our supporters (and likely supporters) are. The list is made up of people who have told us that they have previously supported Labour. They may have told us at a previous election, told some of our central Party telephone canvassers between elections, they may be Party members who have moved into the area, or may have told a councillor or our MP their allegiances when we have worked on an issue for them. Voter ID shows us a person's name, address, electoral roll number and those for others living in their household, and also whether or not the voter has a postal vote. Where the data exists, it tells us how the elector has voted over the past 5 elections. It can tell us who voted for us locally and nationally, who voted against us and which parties (when they have told us)  they voted for instead. It also tells us who has not voted, those who right up to previous elections were still undecided, and those who wouldn't say one way or the other. Some Voter ID entries include a household's telephone number. This is useful so we can call on the phone when the weather has been too bad to go out knocking on doors.


I'm regularly called on by Labour. Why is that? It means that we have you down as a current or previous Labour supporter, or down as someone who hasn't firmly made up your mind who to support. So, we think it is a good use of our time to call on you, discuss the current issues that you will be voting on, and make sure you know where we stand on those issues. If you confirm that we have your support, we will mark you down as a supporter, and the next step for us is to make sure that you remember to vote on polling day itself. If you remain a "don't know" on our list, chances are you will be called on again and again up to polling day!

There are some doors that, as a Labour activist, there is
little point knocking on...!

I never seem to be called on by Labour. Why not? It means that we have previously recorded that you vote against us, and / or are clearly identified with another party, or have previously requested that we do not call again. For instance, when called on you may have told us that you would never vote Labour, or that your voting record shows you have always voted Conservative. Statistically, there is not much point wasting our time calling on someone who has clearly "nailed their colours to the mast" of the Tory party. So we leave you to it, and call only on those we feel could be won over. Early in the campaign, we may have called on people who we know voted against us at the last election (2010), if we also know that prior to that they have voted Labour at some point. However, the closer we come to polling day, the less likely we are to call on "againsts". Firstly, it may remind people to go out and vote against Labour, and secondly it is just not a good use of limited time. Our data this year shows that people who have previously voted against us, when called on switch to Labour at a rate of around 10%. By contrast, "don't knows" are switching at a rate around 60%. However, every house will have received our election material, including our main manifesto leaflet.

"Tellers" are strategically essential to the local operation

Who are the people sat outside the Polling Station, and why do they want to know my voter number on the electoral roll? Often each major party will have someone sat outside the polling station asking you for your number as you leave. These people are called "tellers" and are local volunteers from the party. What is important for Labour is that if you have told us during the campaign that you will be supporting us, you tell us when you have voted so we can tick you off our "promise" list. All through polling day, we have teams of other volunteers calling on the people who promised to support us to remind them to vote. (This is called "knocking-up"!) Once we know that you have voted, our tellers can cross you off the list, and you won't be called on again. You don't have to tell us your roll number when you vote, but if we don't know that you have voted, you are likely to keep getting nagged through the day!

Why crunch all these numbers? Why not just campaign and see what the result is on the day? Some wards are "safer" - demographically and historically they have tended to return Labour councillors again and again. We know that in most local elections, turnout tends to be 35 - 50%. Therefore, it is possible to estimate - from what people tell us on the day - when we have "crossed the finish line" in those wards. Once we know that, we can release some of the volunteers working in those wards to help us in others where the race is closer. Then in those wards, we can also use the data to broadly predict how many more votes we would need to win the seat. By using the list of people who told us they would support us, and cross-referencing it with the list of who have actually voted so far on the day, we know how many more people we need to "knock-up" - to urge to go and vote to secure the seat. This enables us to use our volunteers across the city more efficiently on the day. In 2010, Labour won the Pinhoe seat by just 4 votes, so "knocking-up" can be all-important in some seats. Persuading just one more household to go out and vote at 9.55pm could make all the difference between winning and losing!


So, if you have promised us your support, thank you, and please don't forget to go out and vote on the day. Let our teller know who you are on the way in to the polling station and you will be left alone for the remainder of the day. Pinhoe is never going to be a "safe" Labour seat - the deomgraphy and history here shows that it will always swing between Conservative & Labour. So, while our data is very encouraging, while national polls give Labour a poll lead of between 9 and 13%, while there are signs that even firm Tories are drifting away to UKIP or intending not to vote at all, my team and I are taking nothing for granted and will be working incredibly hard up to and all through Thursday.


Make no mistake, Pinhoe will be a close race, and every vote will count. YOUR vote will count. Please vote for change, vote to send a signal to the national Tory party that their policies are not working, but are hurting families and communities. 

This Thursday